Potential Changes to Education Funding

As we move into November, the potential for education funding changes are very obvious. We don’t really know how the recent ruling on motor vehicle taxes will affect distributions, and the possible revenue increase from 779 (if it passes) along with the increased likelihood of a fiscal year revenue failure will make this a very different spring. As we prepare for all of these eventualities, it is important to be working toward finding a consistent budgeting model to accommodate these eventualities.

Let’s look at the primary issues that are facing us in the immediate future:

• State sales tax collections are continuing a downward trend from year to year.
• Oil and gas have not shown an increase in several months, even though futures prices have moved upward.
• Motor vehicle and gross production are still lagging.
• REA has shown some recovery.
• We continue to see growth in ad valorem and County 4-Mill.
• We will probably see an increase in WADM at mid-term. We are projecting a move from 1,123,000 WADM to 1,129,000 WADM based on SDE budgeting from last year and our data on the highest three years.

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